The terror assault on Krymskiy Most – the Crimea Bridge – was the proverbial straw that broke the Eurasian camel’s back again.
Russian President Vladimir Putin neatly summarized it: “This is a terrorist attack aimed at destroying the significant civilian infrastructure of the Russian Federation.”
The head of the Russian Investigative Committee, Alexander Bastrykin, verified deal with-to-facial area with Putin that Terror on the Bridge was carried out by the SBU – Ukrainian special expert services.
Bastrykin told Putin, “we have already set up the route of the truck, where the explosion took place. Bulgaria, Ga, Armenia, North Ossetia, Krasnodar… The carriers have been discovered. With the aid of operatives of the FSB, we managed to establish suspects.”
Russian intel leaked vital facts to navy correspondent Alexander Kots. The cargo was requested by a Ukrainian citizen: explosives packed in 22 pallets, in rolls of film below plastic wrap, were delivered from Bulgaria to the Georgian port of Poti. Later on, the cargo was loaded on to a truck with international license plates and proceeded overland to Armenia.
Clearance at the Armenia-Russia border was clean – in accordance to the principles of the Eurasian Customs Union (equally Russia and Armenia are users of the Eurasian Financial Union, or EAEU). The cargo evidently prevented detection via X-rays. This route is regular for truckers touring to Russia.
The truck then re-entered Ga and crossed the border into Russia again, but this time through the Higher Lars checkpoint. Which is the identical 1 applied by thousands of Russians fleeing partial mobilization. The truck ended up in Armavir, in which the cargo was transferred to one more truck, below the obligation of Mahir Yusubov: the one that entered the Crimean bridge coming from the Russian mainland.
Quite vital: the transport from Armavir to a delivery tackle in Simferopol should really have transpired on October 6-7: that is, timed to the birthday of President Putin on Friday the 7th. For some unexplained purpose, that was postponed for a day.
The driver of the initially truck is by now testifying. Yusubov, the driver of the 2nd truck – which exploded on the bridge – was “blind:” he had no strategy what he was carrying, and is useless.
At this phase, two conclusions are paramount.
First: This was not a typical ISIS-model truck suicide bombing – the most well-liked interpretation in the aftermath of the terror assault.
Next: The packaging most definitely took position in Bulgaria. That, as Russian intel has cryptically implied, suggests the involvement of “foreign special products and services.”
‘A mirage of lead to and effect’
What has been disclosed in public by Russian intelligence tells only section of the story. An incandescent assessment received by The Cradle from an additional Russian intel source is way additional intriguing.
At minimum 450 kg of explosives ended up utilized in the blast. Not on the truck, but mounted inside of the Crimea Bridge span by itself. The white truck was just a decoy by the terrorists “to generate a mirage of bring about and impact.” When the truck arrived at the level on the bridge wherever the explosives were mounted, the explosion took place.
In accordance to the resource, railroad workforce told investigators that there was a kind of electronic hijacking the terror operators took handle of the railway so the train carrying gas acquired a command to stop for the reason that of a untrue signal that the highway forward was hectic.
Bombs mounted on the bridge spans were being a functioning speculation mostly debated in Russian armed forces channels above the weekend, as effectively as the use of underwater drones.
In the finish, the pretty advanced approach could not follow the essentially rigid timing. There was no alignment by the millimeter concerning the mounted explosive expenses, the passing truck and the gasoline educate stopped in its tracks. Problems was minimal, and quickly contained. The costs/truck combo exploded on the outer proper lane of the street. Problems was only on two sections of the outer lane, and not a great deal on the railway bridge.
In the end, Terror on the Bridge yielded a short, Pyrrhic PR victory – duly celebrated across the collective West – with negligible functional achievements: transfer of Russian army cargo by railway resumed in around 14 several hours.
And that delivers us to the key information in the Russian intel source evaluation: the whodunnit.
It was a system by the British MI6, states this source, with no providing additional facts. Which, he elaborates, Russian intel, for a quantity of good reasons, is shadow-actively playing as “foreign unique providers.”
It is quite telling that the Individuals rushed to set up plausible deniability. The proverbial “Ukrainian federal government official” told CIA mouthpiece The Washington Write-up that the SBU did it. That was a straight confirmation of an Ukrainska Pravda report based mostly on an “unidentified legislation enforcement official.”
The great purple line trifecta
Presently, more than the weekend, it was apparent the supreme red line had been crossed. Russian public impression and media were furious. For all its position as an engineering marvel, Krymsky Most represents not only vital infrastructure it is the visible image of the return of Crimea to Russia.
Moreover, this was a particular terror attack on Putin and the total Russian protection equipment.
So we had, in sequence, Ukrainian terrorists blowing up Darya Dugina’s vehicle in a Moscow suburb (they admitted it) US/British isles unique forces (partially) blowing Nord Stream and Nord Stream 2 (they admitted and then retracted) and the terror attack on Krymsky Most (after again: admitted then retracted).
Not to mention the shelling of Russian villages in Belgorod, NATO supplying lengthy-array weapons to Kiev, and the schedule execution of Russian soldiers.
Darya Dugina, Nord Streams and Crimea Bridge make it an Act of War trifecta. So this time the response was inescapable – not even waiting around for the very first meeting considering that February of the Russian Protection Council scheduled for the afternoon of 10 October.
Moscow introduced the very first wave of a Russian Shock’n Awe without having even transforming the standing of the Specific Military Operation (SMO) to Counter-Terrorist Operation (CTO), with all its really serious armed forces/lawful implications.
Immediately after all, even prior to the UN Stability Council conference, Russian general public belief was massively powering using the gloves off. Putin had not even scheduled bilateral meetings with any of the members. Diplomatic sources hint that the final decision to allow the hammer arrive down had currently been taken about the weekend.
Shock’n Awe did not hold out for the announcement of an ultimatum to Ukraine (that might arrive in a couple times) an official declaration of war (not necessary) or even asserting which ‘”decision-making centers” in Ukraine would be strike.
The lightning strike de facto metastasizing of SMO into CTO suggests that the routine in Kiev and all those supporting it are now viewed as as legit targets, just like ISIS and Jabhat al-Nusra throughout the Anti-Terror Procedure (ATO) in Syria.
And the transform of status – now this is a genuine war on terror – indicates that terminating all strands of terrorism, bodily, cultural, ideological, are the complete precedence, and not the safety of Ukrainian civilians. Throughout the SMO, protection of civilians was paramount. Even the UN has been forced to admit that in over 7 months of SMO the amount of civilian casualties in Ukraine has been rather reduced.
Enter ‘Commander Armageddon’
The face of Russian Shock’n Awe is Russian Commander of the Aerospace Forces, Military Basic Sergey Surovikin: the new commander-in-chief of the now fully centralized SMO/CTO.
Queries ended up getting questioned non-end: why did not Moscow acquire this decision way back again in February? Effectively, superior late than hardly ever. Kiev is now mastering they messed with the wrong person. Surovikin is extensively highly regarded – and feared: his nickname is “General Armageddon.” Other folks phone him “Cannibal.” Legendary Chechen President Ramzan Kadyrov – also a colonel general in the Russian armed service – lavishly praises Surovikin as “a authentic common and warrior, an professional, solid-willed and far-sighted commander.”
Surovikin has been commander of the Russian Aerospace Forces due to the fact 2017 was awarded the title of Hero of Russia for his no-nonsense management of the army procedure in Syria and had on the floor practical experience in Chechnya in the 1990s.
Surovikin is Dr. Shock’n Awe with comprehensive carte blanche. That even rendered idle speculations that Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the Typical Staff Valery Gerasimov ended up eradicated or pressured to resign, as speculated by the Wagner team Telegram channel Gray Zone.
It is nonetheless attainable that Shoigu – extensively criticized for the latest Russian navy setbacks – could be ultimately replaced by Tula Governor Alexei Dyumin, and Gerasimov by the Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the Floor Forces, Lieutenant Normal Alexander Matovnikov.
That’s virtually irrevelant: all eyes are on Surovikin.
MI6 does have some effectively-put moles in Moscow, reasonably talking. The Brits had warned Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and the Typical Workers that the Russians would be launching a “warning strike” this Monday.
What transpired was no “warning strike,” but a huge offensive of about 100 cruise missiles introduced “from the air, sea and land,” as Putin noted, towards Ukrainian “energy, military services command and communications services.”
MI6 also noted “the next step” will be the finish destruction of Ukraine’s electrical power infrastructure. Which is not a “next action:” it’s previously going on. Electrical power supply is completely gone in five locations, which include Lviv and Kharkov, and there are major interruptions in other 5, which includes Kiev.
Above 60 percent of Ukrainian energy grids are already knocked out. More than 75 percent of world wide web website traffic is absent. Elon Musk’s Starlink netcentric warfare has been “disconnected” by the Ministry of Protection.
Shock’n Awe will very likely progress in 3 phases.
To start with: Overload of the Ukrainian air protection method (previously on).
Next: Plunging Ukraine into the Dim Ages (now in development).
3rd: Destruction of all big military services installations (the future wave).
Ukraine is about to embrace virtually whole darkness in the next couple times. Politically, that opens a entirely new ball sport. Contemplating Moscow’s trademark “strategic ambiguity,” this could be a kind of Desert Storm remixed (enormous air strikes getting ready a ground offensive) or, extra likely, an ‘incentive’ to pressure NATO to negotiate or just a relentless, systematic missile offensive combined with Electronic Warfare (EW) to shatter for fantastic Kiev’s ability to wage war.
Or it could be all of the higher than.
How a humiliated western Empire can possibly elevate the stakes now, brief of likely nuclear, continues to be a vital concern. Moscow has proven admirable restraint for way too lengthy. No 1 should really ever neglect that in the genuine Fantastic Sport – how to coordinate the emergence of the multipolar world – Ukraine is just a mere sideshow. But now the sideshow runners far better operate for address, for the reason that General Armageddon is on the loose.